Alberta's Diabetes Cost Crisis
The Staggering Economic Burden
The clinical burden of T2D is mirrored by its staggering economic impact on the province. The rising prevalence places an unsustainable strain on the Alberta Health Services (AHS) budget, on employers through lost productivity, and on individuals through direct and indirect costs.
- Direct healthcare system costs nationally for diabetes have reached over $5 billion in 2024
- The cost of treating a single patient in Alberta over a five-year period is estimated at $27,000, rising to over $44,000 for older adults when medications are included
- These figures do not account for the significant costs of common complications such as cardiovascular disease, kidney failure, and lower-limb amputations, which add hundreds of millions more to the total economic burden
DiRECT Trial: Proven Cost-Effectiveness
This economic reality frames the proposed venture not as a new cost to the system, but as a high-yield investment in cost reduction. A formal health economic analysis of the DiRECT program within the UK's National Health Service (NHS) found the intervention to be both more effective (generating Quality-Adjusted Life Years) and ultimately cost-saving.
The program becomes cost-saving to the public payer within six years, driven primarily by sustained reductions in medication use and the avoidance of costly complications. This evidence provides a robust, data-driven foundation for a compelling value proposition to AHS and the Government of Alberta.
Estimated Prevalence and Cost of Diabetes - Canada
| Prevalence Category | 2024 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|
| Diabetes (type 1 + type 2 diagnosed + type 2 undiagnosed) | 5,804,740 / 15% | 7,303,620 / 16% |
| Diabetes (type 1 and type 2 diagnosed) | 4,006,850 / 10% | 5,300,670 / 12% |
| Diabetes (type 1) | 5-10% of diabetes prevalence | |
| Diabetes + prediabetes (includes undiagnosed) | 11,918,090 / 30% | 14,122,660 / 32% |
| Increase in diabetes (type 1 and type 2 diagnosed), 2024-2034 | 32% | |
| Increase (diagnosed + type 2 undiagnosed), 2024-2034 | 26% | |
| Direct cost to the Health Care System in 2024 | $5.441 billion | |
Out-of-Pocket Costs Per Year
Type 1 diabetes: $78 - $18,306 / 0% - 12% of family income
Type 2 diabetes: $76 - $10,014 / 0% - 7% of family income
Source: Diabetes in Canada: Backgrounder. Toronto: Diabetes Canada; 2024
Impact of Diabetes on Canadians
Among people in Canada, 30% live with diabetes or prediabetes. 10% live with diagnosed diabetes, climbing to 15% when undiagnosed type 2 cases are included. Diabetes contributes to:
Diabetes complications are associated with premature death. Diabetes can reduce lifespan by 5 to 15 years.
The all-cause mortality rate among people living with diabetes is estimated to be twice as high as the rate for those without diabetes.
Diabetes is also the leading cause of blindness in Canada.
Source: Diabetes in Canada: Backgrounder. Toronto: Diabetes Canada; 2024
The Corporate Wellness Opportunity
The economic argument extends beyond the public purse to the private sector. The initial business concept identifies reduced workplace productivity, increased sick days, and higher corporate health benefit costs as major pain points for Alberta's employers.
The same logic that demonstrates cost savings for the public system can be applied to private corporations. This creates a strategic opportunity for a bifurcated value proposition:
For AHS
A "cost-savings and improved outcomes" narrative backed by DiRECT trial evidence and Alberta-specific cost data
For Employers
A "productivity-gain and reduced-benefits-cost" narrative positioning ThriveAB as an investment in corporate human assets
This opens a secondary, and potentially lucrative, B2B revenue channel through corporate wellness program partnerships, diversifying revenue streams beyond AHS billing and positioning the venture as a critical investment in corporate human assets.
ThriveAB is not proposing a new cost — it is proposing a high-yield investment in cost reduction with proven clinical evidence. The $556M annual burden in Alberta, combined with the DiRECT trial's demonstrated cost-effectiveness ($2,496 CAD lifetime savings per participant, cost-saving within 6 years), creates an irrefutable economic case for both public-sector adoption and private-sector partnership.